<>>> <>/ExtGState<>/XObject<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI] >>/MediaBox[ 0 0 612 792] /Contents 4 0 R/Group<>/Tabs/S/StructParents 0>> COPYRIGHT © 2019 WAR ON THE ROCKS. Traditional military capabilities remain essential for deterring and defeating threats at the higher end of the conflict spectrum, but effectively dealing with an era dominated by gray zone conflicts requires more. The US Is Out of Position in the Indo-Pacific Region, An Army Transformed: USINDOPACOM Hypercompetition and US Army Theater Design, Memorandum for SECDEF: Restore “Shock” in Strategic Planning, COVID-19 and Indo-Pacific Strategy: Korea is Up, China is Down, and the US (For Now) is Out. Yet U.S. conventional forces have been providing SFA in Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond for many years… Critical Questions is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. 6 0 obj Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. <> x��V�j�@}��Q*�fg�!�8iH �$�BKL�C"��S��wV�kɺDĶ�d��s���e��]�/π�����N'qt�5�&�q��� �a\�V�i�gZwqga�G��rG?H��*�� ί� ���� They bring in-depth cultural knowledge to regional skirmishes around the world, often including language skills and years of building personal relationships. A1: Gray zone actions challenge U.S. interests, influence, or power and do so in ways designed to avoid direct U.S. military responses. At the height of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the preponderance of deployed forces — and all the directing headquarters — came from conventional troop formations, totaling over 170,000 in Iraq and nearly 101,000 in Afghanistan at their respective peaks. Q2: If it usually isn’t direct military confrontation, why should the United States care? Senior Fellow, International Security Program, Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation, Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation, Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts, Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations, Commentaries, Critical Questions, and Newsletters. The Department of Defense (DOD) will rarely lead that response, because gray zone conflicts are designed, almost by definition, to circumvent traditional U.S. military power. That demand will remain high during an era of gray zone conflicts, as the United States seeks to strengthen the capabilities of its allies and partners to address their own security challenges. Q4: Is the United States ready to compete? The United States is beginning to recognize how gray zone competitors operate. Gray Zone conflicts or Shadow Wars are not a formal type war. In a world of burgeoning gray zone conflicts, some conventional military units must be both re-trained and re-organized to conduct military operations at the lower end of the conflict spectrum. ���e4s���! Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). These shadow wars may not trigger conventional military responses, but many nonetheless pose great strategic risks for the United States. endobj Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. <> Q1: What is Gray Zone Conflict? China’s economic policies throughout Africa and Asia, its island building, and use of a range of maritime assets to harass foreign vessels and deny them access to international waters may also be considered gray zone actions. Even if SOF does grow, their distinct nature and highly selective screening process means that they will always remain much smaller than conventional forces. endobj The United States must increase its abilities to understand, adapt, and prevail in these conflicts so that they do not grow to a level of strategic disruption that threatens vital U.S. interests. <> The United States lacks clearly defined strategies to address these challenges. ���� JFIF � � �� �Exif MM * > b? 10 0 obj The best special operations forces in the world and more specialized conventional capabilities will both be necessary to fight and win in the gray zone. Countries like China and Russia increasingly use non-military means to achieve their objectives. All rights reserved. They can operate with low visibility and moderate risk, calling little attention to their actions. Yet they remain a tiny fraction of the U.S. armed forces. The report was 15. endstream Yet military capabilities will remain an essential part of U.S. responses — and none more so than special operations forces (SOF). These gray zone actions include election meddling, economic coercion, and the ambiguous use of unconventional force. A3: Gray zone actions exist, and thrive, at the margins of “acceptable” state behavior with thresholds bound between day-to-day statecraft and acts of war, intended to delay or paralyze competitors’ decisionmaking. SOF are clearly purpose-built for conflict in the gray zone — but they may not be enough. For the United States, effectively addressing gray zone conflicts will require a coordinated interagency response. Such warfare is conducted in the “grey zone” of conflict, meaning operations may not clearly cross the threshold of war. <> 7 0 obj ƃ���V�֟�@\�UՂR�J,J�sm��nK`�4��W�"Wm$�ϔ|�J�����r�#܇���t>CgK��'-���5ݹ�͗��W�i�%J�����/�Jv[7�?.�چi�CG4�F{*4C��mmh[]վ�{��yh��ε�B�aƻ�40{���a��Y7�[�[{ί���E��� ��P�}����^�t$���*!�%�p-3�ȧk���f0^f�4o�a�ܯJ�4喭�w����s�� Their column appears in War on the Rocks every other Tuesday. stream This series of critical questions explains the “gray zone” and the United States’ current readiness to compete in this space. The final section draws upon lessons learned and offers conventional force solutions to modern gray zone problems. Signing up for this newsletter means you agree to our data policy. The third section explores the Dominican Republic Intervention of 1965 as an example of US Army conventional forces operating successfully in a gray zone conflict. The United States must also ensure that some of its conventional capabilities are organized, trained, and equipped for these ever-expanding conflicts. These form a “gray zone” between traditional notions of war and peace. But Ukraine—particularly the fighting in Donbas—has blown past being an ambiguous “no-man’s land” or gray zone, given the violent scope of the conflict (10,000 dead) and the overt use of advanced conventional power (armor, rockets, missiles). Examples include Russia’s disinformation campaigns against societies in the West, its use of cyber activities to threaten western businesses, and its use of proxy forces to annex territory and foment civil war in Ukraine. This relatively small investment in SOF may need to be revisited in an era of gray zone conflicts, where demand for their capabilities will only grow. © 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. endobj Yet despite high demand and over a decade of experience, neither the Army nor the Marines has dedicated any force structure to the SFA mission. The system of political and economic predictability has benefited the United States, its allies, and its partners for decades. �[�T� �Z@�I� <> 8 0 obj Gray Zone Conflict I am forwarding herewith the ISAB’s report on Gray Zone Conflict. But trends such as globalization, mass access to technology and communications, and asymmetric reactions to U.S. tactics in Afghanistan and Iraq are converging into an era where more and more conflicts are being fought at the lower end of the conflict spectrum. 9 0 obj Contact H. Andrew Schwartz Chief Communications Officer Tel: 202.775.3242, Contact Caleb Diamond Media Relations Manager and Editorial Associate Tel: 202.775.3173.
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